In Europe, a paradox structures the payment market: on one hand, lawmakers are pushing toward unified and instant infrastructures; on the other, consumers remain deeply attached to their local habits and trusted payment methods. iDEAL in the Netherlands, BLIK in Poland, Bizum in Spain, Bancontact in Belgium: these local players continue to capture the majority of transactions and are essential for merchants with a commercial presence who want to strengthen their conversion rate.
2026 is a year of evolution. Instant payments are becoming the norm, Wero is truly starting to establish itself beyond P2P, split payments are shifting regulatory status, and AI is moving from a novelty to an operational infrastructure. Discover our overview of the major shifts in the payment sector in 2026.
1. Wero: The European wallet goes beyond P2P
Launched in mid-2024 in France, Germany, and Belgium as a simple peer-to-peer reimbursement tool, Wero's rapid expansion was confirmed in spring 2026: Wero already unites over 53 million users on the European continent, including 16 million in France.
But the real turning point this year is the transition to e-commerce. The first e-commerce transactions via Wero took place in France in April 2026, involving major brands such as Air France, E.Leclerc, Veepee, and Orange-Sosh [1]. In-store payments, meanwhile, are announced for 2027. In the Netherlands, the shift is even more structural: Wero is set to gradually replace iDEAL (by the end of 2027), which processes over one billion transactions per year [1].
Businesses must nevertheless take into account consumers' ongoing attachment to payment cards. Currently, Wero is best approached as a strategic complement to cards rather than a direct substitute, especially in e-commerce where purchasing habits remain heavily anchored around cards.
2. Tap to Pay: Mobile acceptance scales up
Using smartphones as payment acceptance terminals has moved beyond pop-up shops. The global market for Tap to Pay is expected to grow from $503.9 million in 2026 to nearly $1.7 billion by 2034, representing an average annual growth rate of 16.3%, according to Fortune Business Insights [2].
This acceleration is largely explained by the arrival of Tap to Pay on iPhone in 2024, which removed a major technical hurdle by unlocking access to the iPhone's NFC chip without additional hardware. The impact is immediate for merchants (whether a delivery driver, a field sales representative, or a salesperson at an event): it is now possible to accept card payments without specialized equipment.
For omni-channel retailers, the benefits are already very concrete. Tap to Pay is establishing itself as a complementary use case to reduce checkout queues during peak times and prevent lost sales. While established retailers maintain their traditional POS terminals, this technology offers new entrants and DNVBs an agile alternative, avoiding the investment and maintenance of dedicated hardware.
3. Instant SEPA: 10-second transfers become second nature
European Regulation 2024/886, adopted in March 2024, made instant transfers free and mandatory for receiving payments since January 2025, and for sending payments since October 2025, for all payment service providers (PSPs) across the SEPA zone [5]. Instant credit transfers, which have existed since 2017, thus become the default baseline rather than a paid option.
For customers, the most visible impact is twofold:
- Refunds in ten seconds, including weekends and public holidays, which becomes a real loyalty factor in the post-purchase experience.
- The end of historical limits: the €100,000 threshold and cut-off times disappear, making it possible to pay a supplier on a Sunday evening while retaining control over cash flow until the last minute.
The regulation also mandates Verification of Payee (VoP), which is the matching check between the beneficiary's name and their IBAN to limit irrevocable losses linked to fraud [3]. For finance teams, the challenge is not just regulatory: once issued, an instant transfer is irrevocable, unlike a traditional transfer. This new 24/7 settlement cadence must align with accounting systems historically designed around a daily cycle, making automated reconciliation critical as volumes grow.
4. BNPL: The oend of the regulatory grey area
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) has long evaded traditional consumer credit frameworks by staying below the 90-day threshold and beneath certain monetary limits. That era is coming to an end. The European Consumer Credit Directive (EU 2023/2225) will apply starting November 20, 2026 [6].
In practice, a major share of split and deferred payments will enter the consumer credit regime, introducing several new obligations for sector players:
- Disclosure of total cost and APR (annual percentage rate)
- Detailed repayment schedule
- 14-day right of withdrawal
- Proportionate creditworthiness assessment, with recommendations to check national credit registers.
Direct deferred payments provided by merchants will remain outside this regime if repaid within 50 days, interest-free, and without a third-party lender.
This tightening addresses a genuine consumer protection concern: in 2024, 17% of over-indebtedness cases in France already involved BNPL or mini-credits according to the French Banking Inclusion Observatory [4]. Furthermore, this directive expands regulation to new products (mini-credits, split payments) and imposes enhanced creditworthiness checks, creating significant operational impacts for lending entities.
For merchants, the immediate risk is checkout friction: the new regulations require collecting more information upon initial sign-up, which can impact customer onboarding fluidly and lower conversion rates. Conversely, players structuring their BNPL user journeys early in alignment with these requirements will turn regulatory constraints into a trust advantage.
5. PSD3 and PSR: An upgrade following PSD2
The Third Payment Services Directive (PSD3) and the Payment Services Regulation (PSR) come into force this year, with an eighteen-month implementation period. Unlike PSD2, whose Strong Customer Authentication (3DS) roll-out led to sharp conversion drops and spikes in support tickets, PSD3 is designed as an evolution of the existing framework rather than a revolution: clearer rules, strengthened Open Banking, and more predictable compliance across Europe.
However, the French landscape remains distinct, largely shaped by particularly strict enforcement of strong authentication by the ACPR. French issuers are known to take a firm stance on transactions perceived as risky: if fraud rates spike, they can mandate systematic strong authentication across all of a merchant's transactions, directly impacting conversion. The most robust response is partnering with a provider capable of dynamically applying exemptions, such as Transaction Risk Analysis (TRA), tailored to the specific behavior of French issuers.
6. Wallets and the data blind spot
For years, card payments were rich in data. As payments shift toward one-click checkouts and digital wallets, this traditional data stream is drying up: merchants process an increasing number of sales via tokenized identifiers where the PAN is masked and purchase context is missing.
Two concrete operational challenges:
- The risk of false positives. When faced with data-sparse transactions (a token, an amount, and nothing else), legacy fraud engines are left guessing. Without signal enrichment (network reputation, token trust level, device history), legitimate customers risk getting blocked.
- Customer identity fragmentation. Digital wallets use a device-specific token (DPAN) instead of the underlying card number (FPAN). Without structured integration to connect the two, a loyal customer purchasing from an iPhone can look like a complete stranger compared to a previous purchase made with their physical card.
The technical solution relies on persistent identifiers such as the Payment Account Reference (PAR) for cards and wallets, or the Bancontact Account Reference (BAR) and IBAN tokens for local payment methods, ensuring a single customer is recognized regardless of the payment method or device used.
7. AI as payment infrastructure
The real shift in 2026 is not AI entering payments, but its transition from experimentation to an everyday operational tool, fulfilling two distinct roles:
- The fixer, which merchants need today. AI brings dual value compared to rigid rule engines: it optimizes conversions while strengthening security. By analyzing the global transaction context—such as alignment between buyer profile, location, and shopping cart—it adjusts decisions in real time. As a result, it increases authorization rates for legitimate buyers through smart routing and identifies complex fraud patterns impossible to spot with static rules.
- The agent, to be built progressively for tomorrow. Soon, AI will be able to recognize a customer's commercial identity across all channels and dynamically adjust loyalty programs, currency offerings, or post-purchase journeys based on their history.
What this means concretely for your payment strategy
These trends tell the same story from different angles: payment is no longer just a back-office cost center, but a strategic customer touchpoint that must be managed with as much care as the rest of the shopping experience.
Wero, Tap to Pay, SEPA Instant, and regulated BNPL reshape what your customers see and experience at checkout. PSD3, wallet data fragmentation, and AI reshape behind the scenes your ability to transform these transactions into actionable insights. The question is no longer choosing between cost control and performance, but knowing how your current payment infrastructure will hold up against these simultaneous challenges.
Would you like to evaluate your payment infrastructure against these developments? Feel free to reach out and talk with our MarketPay experts.
Sources
[1] monespaceclient.org, "Wero in-store and e-commerce: where to pay in 2026?"
[2] Fortune Business Insights, SoftPOS Market Size, 2026
[3] web-monetique.fr, "Payment Terminal Trends in 2026"
[4] Société Générale, "Instant SEPA credit transfers: towards a new European standard?"
